[1]刘梦 戴翔.经济增长中“净出口”作用如何被低估?——基于传统方法的修正、再测算与比较研究[J].南开经济研究官网,2020,(02):49.
 Liu Meng and Dai Xiang.How Is The Role of "Net Exports" in Economic Growth Underestimated?[J].Nankai Economic Studies,2020,(02):49.
点击复制

经济增长中“净出口”作用如何被低估?——基于传统方法的修正、再测算与比较研究(  )
分享到:

《南开经济研究》官网[ISSN:1001-4691/CN:12-1028/F]

卷:
期数:
2020年02
页码:
49
栏目:
出版日期:
2020-04-22

文章信息/Info

Title:
How Is The Role of "Net Exports" in Economic Growth Underestimated?
作者:
刘梦 戴翔
刘梦,东南大学经济管理学院;戴翔,南京审计大学政治与经济研究院
Author(s):
Liu Meng1 and Dai Xiang2
1. School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China; 2. Institute of Politics and Economics, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing 211815, China
关键词:
经济增长全球价值链“净出口”拉动率贡献率
Keywords:
Economic Growth Global Value Chain Net Exports Driving Rate Contributing Rate
摘要:
在全球价值链分工条件下,以宏观经济恒等式为基础测度“净出口”对经济增长拉动率和贡献率的传统方法,由于存在忽略全球投入产出关联和假定各经济变量相互独立的局限,所得结果低估了“净出口”的真实作用水平。本文从全球价值链分工的特征事实出发,利用投入产出模型,在数理层面推导并构建了“净出口”对经济增长拉动率与贡献率的新测算框架。以中国经验数据为例,利用WIOD提供的最新基础数据,采用修正后和传统的两种方法,分别测算了2001-2014年中国“净出口”对经济增长的理论作用值和传统统计值。测算结果表明,传统方法确实低估了“净出口”对经济增长的拉动率和贡献率,而且伴随全球价值链分工深化,低估现象更普遍、更严重。对于已经并更将深度融入全球价值链分工体系的中国而言,正确评估“净出口”对经济增长真实拉动率和贡献率已是当务之急,尤其在中国出口增速面临巨大下滑压力的现实背景下,为避免错误测算结果在战略调整和经济政策的制定上可能产生的误导,亟需在统计体系上做出相应变革。这也是新时代构建高质量发展统计体系的应有要义之一。
Abstract:
Under the conditions of global value chain division, due to the existence of ignoring the global input-output correlation and assuming that each economic variable is independent, the traditional method of measuring the driving rate and the contributing rate of the “net export” to economic growth based on the macroeconomic identity, which underestimate the real function of "net exports". Based on the characteristics and facts of global value chain division, this paper uses the input-output model to construct a new calculation framework for the net export’s driving and contributing rate to economic growth. Taking China’s empirical data as an example, using the latest basic data provided by WIOD, both the revised and traditional methods were used to calculate the theoretical effect and traditional statistical values of China’s "net exports" on economic growth from 2001 to 2014. The calculation results show that the traditional method does indeed underestimate the driving and contributing rate of "net exports" to economic growth, and with the deepening of the division of global value chain, underestimation is more common and more serious. As for China, which has been more deeply integrated into the global value chain division system, it is imperative to correctly assess the true driving and contributing rate of "net exports" to economic growth. Especially under the realistic background of China’s export growth facing huge downward pressure, in order to avoid misleading calculation results that may be misleading in strategic adjustment and economic policy formulation, it is urgent to make corresponding changes in the statistical system. It is also one of the essentials of building high-quality development statistics system in the new era.

相似文献/References:

[1]张洪,金杰,全诗凡.房地产投资、经济增长与空间效应——基于70个大中城市的空间面板数据实证研究[J].南开经济研究官网,2014,(01):42.
 Zhang Hong,Jin Jie,Quan Shifan.Real Estate Investment, Economic Growth and Spatial Effect—An Empirical Research Based on the Spatial Panel Data from 70 Cities in China[J].Nankai Economic Studies,2014,(02):42.
[2]李云娥.对外开放必然带来经济增长吗?——基于二元经济转换的视角[J].南开经济研究官网,2014,(01):59.
 Lee Yune.The Study of Chinese Trade Gap in the Economic Structure Upgrade and Economic System Conversion.[J].Nankai Economic Studies,2014,(02):59.
[3]刘盾,施祖麟,袁伦渠.利润拉动还是工资拉动?——对劳动收入份额影响经济增长的理论探讨与实证研究[J].南开经济研究官网,2014,(02):3.
 Liu Dun,Shi Zulin,Yuan Lunqu.Profit-led or Wage-led? A Theoretical Inquiry and Empirical Research in the Impact of Labor Share on Economic Growth[J].Nankai Economic Studies,2014,(02):3.
[4]鞠建东,余心玎.全球价值链上的中国角色——基于中国行业上游度和海关数据的研究[J].南开经济研究官网,2014,(03):39.
 Ju Jiandong,YuXinding.China’s Role in the Global Value Chain—— Analysis Based on China’s Industry Upstreamness and Customs Data[J].Nankai Economic Studies,2014,(02):39.
[5]黄智淋,成禹同,董志勇.通货膨胀与经济增长的非线性门限效应——基于面板数据平滑转换回归模型的实证分析[J].南开经济研究官网,2014,(04):0.
 Huang Zhilin,Dong Zhiyong,Cheng Yutong.Nonlinear Threshold Effect between Inflation and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model[J].Nankai Economic Studies,2014,(02):0.
[6]杨珍增.知识产权保护、国际生产分割与全球价值链分工[J].南开经济研究官网,2014,(05):130.
 Yang Zhenzeng.Intellectual Property Rights Protection, Fragmentation and Global Value Chain Specialization[J].Nankai Economic Studies,2014,(02):130.
[7]严成樑,龚六堂.R&D规模、R&D结构与经济增长[J].南开经济研究官网,2013,(02):0.
 Yan Chengliang,Gong Liutang.R&D Ratio, R&D Structure and Economic Growth[J].Nankai Economic Studies,2013,(02):0.
[8]张启迪.政府债务对经济增长的影响存在阀值效应吗 ——来自欧元区的证据[J].南开经济研究官网,2015,(03):95.
 Zhang Qidi.Does Threshold Effects Exists in the Relation Between Government Debt and Growth? ——New Evidence for the Euro Area[J].Nankai Economic Studies,2015,(02):95.
[9]黎峰.全球价值链分工下的出口产品结构及核算--基于增加值的视角[J].南开经济研究官网,2015,(04):63.
 Li Feng.The Structure of Export under global value chain and accounting : based on the perspective of value-added[J].Nankai Economic Studies,2015,(02):63.
[10]范庆泉,周县华,潘文卿.从生产性财政支出效率看规模优化:基于经济增长的视角[J].南开经济研究官网,2015,(05):24.
 Fan Qingquan,Zhou Xianhua,Pan Wenqing.A Study of Optimal Scale from Fiscal Production Expenditure Efficiency Based on the Perspective of Economic Growth[J].Nankai Economic Studies,2015,(02):24.

更新日期/Last Update: 2020-03-11